Sports Market Terminal
Find mispriced pucks before the market moves.
NHL Edge Pro applies a Bivariate Negative Binomial goals model and NB shots-on-goal props engine to surface edges in regulation totals, moneylines, and player props before Vegas adjusts.
Scanning 12 games · 4 playable edges live
Games scanned
8
Board opens as odds refresh land
Playable edges
3
Still within range now
Watchlist
2
Value slipping but not gone
EDM O6 +5.2%·TOR/BOS U5.5 +3.8%·VGK ML +2.6%·FLA/TB O6.5 +4.1%·NYR ML +1.7%·COL O6 +3.3%·MTL ML −0.6%·DAL/STL U5 +2.9%·CAR ML +0.9%·WSH O5.5 +4.7%·EDM O6 +5.2%·TOR/BOS U5.5 +3.8%·VGK ML +2.6%·FLA/TB O6.5 +4.1%·NYR ML +1.7%·COL O6 +3.3%·MTL ML −0.6%·DAL/STL U5 +2.9%·CAR ML +0.9%·WSH O5.5 +4.7%·
Tonight's Board
How the market is setting up
Over 6.0
EDM @ CGY
Edge
+5.2%
Fair
-128
Book
-110
Read
The model still sees room before the playable number closes.
Under 5.5
TOR @ BOS
Edge
+3.8%
Fair
-122
Book
-108
Read
The model still sees room before the playable number closes.
VGK ML
VGK @ LAK
Edge
+2.6%
Fair
-115
Book
-105
Read
The model still sees room before the playable number closes.
Why Hockey Is Different
Goals are rare — the model accounts for that
NHL goals are over-dispersed relative to Poisson. The Bivariate NB model captures this variance correctly, making O/U edges more precise than a simple expected-goals line.
Player props (shots on goal, points) use a separately fitted NB distribution — validated at +6.6pp ROI vs Poisson on out-of-sample games.
Regulation results matter for puck line and ML markets. The model computes P(home reg win) directly from the joint goal distribution — no separate classifier needed.
Subscriber Workflow
From scan to close
Scanning markets01
Edge found02
Playable03
Watchlist04
Line moved05
Graded06
Under the Hood — NHL
The engine behind the picks
3
Seasons in training set
2023 – 2026
Biv NB
Totals model
Dixon-Coles inspired
r=20.1
NB dispersion fitted
Goals (MLE, L-BFGS-B)
r=3.25
SOG props dispersion
Shots on goal NB
+6.6pp
NB ROI vs Poisson
SOG props backtest
0.25×
Kelly sizing applied
Optimal bankroll math
NHL Edge Pro is informational analytics software only. It does not guarantee outcomes, profit, or the accuracy of any market or model signal.